Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
June 04, 2004
BASEBALL: Tale of Two Sluggers

Barry Bonds is closing in on another home run milestone: he's four homers from 500 as a Giant. Which is pretty impressive, seeing as he was already a two-time MVP when he got to San Francisco.

Rafael Palmeiro is also still plugging along, batting .280/.446/.403. A closer look at the numbers, though, reveals some possible danger signs. Palmeiro's walk rate has spiked sharply upward this season - he's on pace for 126 walks compared to 84 last year and a career high of 104 - while his power has dropped off very sharply. I recall a Bill James thesis that an old player who starts walking a lot more may be compensating for slower bat speed, and will usually be found out soon enough by the pitchers. Then again, it wasn't a systematic study, and Palmeiro's strikeouts are at their lowest rate since 1989, while players showing this pattern typically start striking out a lot more as well. We shall see.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 07:01 AM | Baseball 2004 | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

No way Raf is going to strike out after taking all that Viagra. Sorry. That was horrible.

Posted by: Zach at June 4, 2004 10:50 AM
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